INTRODUCTION:

In recent years, significant changes in international trade policies have affected relations between developed and developing countries. Countries are increasingly using these policies as tools for economic and strategic influence, especially in addressing climate change, promoting sustainability, and dealing with geopolitical issues. The European Union (EU) has established itself as a global leader in international environmental cooperation. It actively supports and participates in international environmental agreements and initiatives¹. A key part of the EU's climate strategy is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This mechanism aims to create a level playing field by applying a carbon cost to imports of carbon-heavy goods. Meanwhile, India and the EU are engaged in renewed discussions for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This agreement seeks to increase market access, reduce tariffs, and strengthen economic ties. From India's viewpoint, the ongoing negotiations and the development of CBAM and the FTA present both opportunities and challenges. The FTA could improve access to the EU market, encourage technology transfer, and build strategic international partnerships. However, CBAM could undermine these potential benefits by adding costs for Indian exporters, especially in carbon-intensive sectors. This contradiction highlights the need to examine the relationship between trade liberalization through the FTA and climate regulation via CBAM. While there is active debate on CBAM and the FTA separately, limited research has looked into their combined impact on India-EU trade relations. This paper aims to explore how the CBAM and the FTA intersect in shaping India-EU trade dynamics. It investigates strategies India can adopt through negotiation, policy alignment, domestic reforms, and the implications of implementing CBAM. The goal is to ensure that India's interests are protected while also advancing its climate commitments.

LITERATURE REVIEW:

This section brings together information from academic research, international organisations, think tanks, and governmental statements. It aims to create a balanced foundation for looking at possible impacts of CBAMs on trade relations between India and the EU. Examining current research and policy analysis is essential to place this study within the wider conversations about climate governance and international trade.

EU climate leadership:

EU Climate Leadership Scholars have long debated the scope and effectiveness of the EU's climate leadership.²Highlights that although the EU often aims to lead by example in international negotiations; its influence has been inconsistent. Successes like "saving" the Kyoto Protocol are contrasted by failures such as the 2009 Copenhagen Summit. A key theme in this analysis is the EU's need to maintain credibility through strong domestic policies. Without this, its international leadership risks being seen as merely symbolic. Building on this,³define EU climate leadership as multi-dimensional—cognitive, structural, entrepreneurial, and exemplary. They argue that it has shifted from a narrow UNFCCC focus to broader climate diplomacy. They also note the rise of "negative climate leadership," pointing out that internal division and resource constraints can undermine the EU's ambitious agenda. Together, these perspectives suggest that while the EU has significant capacity to influence global climate governance, its effectiveness depends on aligning negative actions with external diplomatic strategies.

Debates on CBAM’s Dual Nature:

The EU Commission describes CBAM as an environmental strategy meant to impose a fair cost on carbon emissions produced during the manufacturing of carbon-heavy goods entering the EU. The goal is to encourage cleaner industrial practices in non-EU countries⁴. From this perspective, CBAM is viewed as a climate innovation aimed at promoting global decarbonization and preventing carbon leakage. However, scholars and policymakers disagree on whether CBAM is strictly an environmental measure or a type of protectionism. Legal analyses indicate that CBAM can be seen not only as a regulatory tool but also as an economic response that pressures countries that do not meet EU climate standards⁵. This debate is especially relevant for India in the context of the ongoing India-EU FTA negotiations. If CBAM is mainly a climate initiative, it could push India to accelerate its shift to low carbon practices and gain advantage from green technology transfers within the FTA framework. On the other hand, if CBAM acts as protectionism, it could threaten the tariff concessions and market access that India seeks through the FTA. The view of CBAM as a climate tool or a protectionist measure will directly affect the results of the India-EU FTA negotiations.

India-EU FTA Negotiations & Strategic Responses:

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) points out that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) poses a major challenge for India's carbon-heavy exports, like steel and aluminium. These exports may lose their competitive advantage in the European Union market. Within the context of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), this creates a contradiction. Although tariff cuts under the FTA could improve India’s access, CBAM threatens to negate these benefits by adding extra costs to Indian exports. To tackle this issue, GTRI suggests several practical steps. These include adding CBAM-related protections to the FTA, forming a domestic task force, and accelerating India's efforts to reduce carbon emissions. According to GTRI, these actions are crucial not only to reduce vulnerability under CBAM but also to strengthen India's bargaining position in future trade talks⁶. Therefore, the India-EU FTA must be viewed in relation to CBAM. These two frameworks are interconnected, and their relationship will influence if the FTA truly provides benefits for India or if CBAM negates them.

Inter-plays between FTA and CBAM:

Recent studies show that free trade agreements and climate policies, like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, are becoming more connected and sometimes create conflicting outcomes. Reports such as⁷ point out India is particularly concerned that the EU's carbon border tax could increase compliance costs and limit export opportunities for sectors such as steel and aluminium. The report shows that India is considering policy changes, adopting new technologies, and pursuing diplomatic efforts to address these challenges. However, there is a lack of research on the combined effects of CBAM and the India-EU Free Trade Agreement on India. This study aims to examine this relationship and suggest ways for India to handle both the challenges and opportunities.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES:

1. To evaluate the impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on India’s carbon-intensive export sectors.

2. To explore how the proposed India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) might affect or lessen these impacts.

3. To pinpoint India key policy measures to stay competitive in trade under the CBAM rules.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DESIGN:

In this paper, a qualitative research approach is employed, focusing on the analysis of secondary data. The study draws from a broad spectrum of sources, including academic journal articles, policy documents, official reports, and trade statistics. Key sources comprise official publications from the European Commission and WTO, as well as policy reports from Indian-European think tanks like GTRI and CSEP. The paper utilizes a literature review and case study methodology, concentrating on carbon-intensive sectors to evaluate the effects of CBAM on India-EU trade relations and the ongoing FTA negotiations. The methodology is both descriptive and analytical, aiming to synthesize existing evidence to assess India’s strategic responses to CBAM.

ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION:

This analysis looks at how the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) impacts India’s trade negotiations with the EU. Using secondary sources, it highlights main themes in the literature, such as an overview of CBAM, its effect on India's trade risks, the progress of India-EU free trade talks, and CBAM’s role in trade liberalization. The findings are grouped into four sections: legal, political, and economic perspectives. Each section covers a different part of India’s response to CBAM, including climate and diplomatic strategies for meeting the challenges and opportunities it brings.

Overview of CBAM:

The European Union established the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as part of the "Fit for 55" climate initiative, which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030. Introduced in 2023, CBAM addresses the problem of carbon leakage, defined as the relocation of production to jurisdictions with less stringent climate regulations or the substitution of European Union products with imports that have higher carbon emissions. The mechanism requires that imported goods incur the same carbon costs as domestically produced goods under the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Currently, CBAM applies to six sectors that are known for high emissions: cement, iron, steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen⁸. A comprehensive understanding of CBAM is essential for assessing its compatibility with international trade regulations. The EU is phasing in the CBAM to provide businesses and trade partners with sufficient time to comply with new carbon regulations. Figure 1 presents the implementation timeline, outlining the progressive rollout of the mechanism from October 2023 through 2034 and subsequent years. Analyzing these stages is crucial for determining how exporting countries such as India can respond to evolving trade and environmental requirements.

The European Union's gradual rollout of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a reflection of its intentions to combat carbon leakage and promote more environmentally friendly production processes. Rollout of the mechanism in four phases beginning October 2023 by the EU gives exporting countries like India sufficient time to adjust to the new carbon rules and reshape their trade strategies to suit the same. Understanding the transitional nature of CBAM and its implications on compliance, costs, and trade negotiations is critical to assessing how India can play strategically within the India-EU FTA negotiation process underway.

CBAM’s Effect on India’s Trade Risks:

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) poses a multifaceted risk structure for India-European trade. As a global leader in exporting carbon-intensive products, India will bear additional cost loads, regulatory standards, and possible adjustments in market trends. The phased application of CBAM further complicates the situation, rendering the long-term business investment and compliance planning challenging. The above risks are not confined to merely economic costs but are extended to sector-specific exposures, regional imbalances, and social impacts, e.g., employment changes. India ranks fifth on the World Bank’s CBAM Exposure Index, highlighting its vulnerability due to large exports of steel and cement to the EU¹⁰. Knowledge of these dimensions is necessary to assess the extent to which India can protect its trade interests without compromising with changing global climate standards. Under such circumstances, recent research, such as comprehensive modelling studies, could contribute meaningful knowledge about the distributional and economic effects of CBAM on India's export industries and enable sound planning and strategic involvement in trade talks while confronting the larger issues of sustainable development and global climate regulation. The Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) used a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis to look at the potential impact of CBAM on India. They found that it could reduce India’s GDP by about 0.3%. This drop is mainly due to higher costs in carbon-heavy industries. Sectors like steel, cement, and fertilizers may lose competitiveness and see changes in trade patterns. The impact will likely vary by region, with industries that rely heavily on carbon facing the biggest economic hurdles. Additionally, CBAM could bring social challenges, including changes in jobs and growing income inequality. Overall, the results show the economic and social risks that India needs to address as it adapts to EU carbon pricing¹¹.

Major Risks Include:

Increased Compliance Costs:

Indian exporters pay additional costs because of the carbon pricing within CBAM. Traditionally, the carbon price in the EU was quite modest, ranging from €16 per tonne in 2018 to €25 per tonne in 2019, primarily owing to sparse regulatory measures. Yet by 2021, the price had increased significantly to around €56 per tonne, reflecting increased climate mitigation objectives¹². Recently, the 2024 average auction price is indicated to be €64.74 per tonne by the International Carbon Action Partnership¹³. Influenced by evolving market dynamics and shifts in energy, higher carbon prices, such as those that prevailed in 2021, raise the cost of compliance, resulting in significant welfare and GDP losses for countries like India. By putting the impacts of CBAM into perspective with carbon pricing at large, this analysis underscores the disparate challenges faced by emerging nations like India and stresses the imperative for equitable and supportive climate policies that redress these disparities.

Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities:

India's aluminium, iron, and steel industries are at high risk from the CBAM because they have high carbon emissions and depend on the EU market. The Iron and Steel sector, specifically, faces an estimated additional cost of $4.36 per ton of emissions, significantly more than Aluminium's $0.24 per ton, highlighting the different levels of exposure these industries are subject to. The industry's 23.5% share of exports in FY 2022-23 to the EU further makes it susceptible to CBAM's compliance requirements and rising carbon costs¹⁴. Accordingly,¹⁵ Estimates suggest a 25% tax charge for exports to the EU, whereas Vinod Gupta, FICCI’s Steel Committee Senior Member, expects a 20-35% tax charge for the next decade. He also indicates that India's emission intensity of steel is 2.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of crude steel, significantly above the world average of 1.91 tonnes, as the industry is more vulnerable. All these factors indicate that in the absence of proper mitigation measures, India's iron and steel exports are bound to face escalating costs and diminishing access to markets in the near future.

Impact on MSMEs:

The secondary steel industry accounts for about 40% of India's steel output. It mainly comprises MSMEs that face significant challenges from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). According to the EU Commission, during CBAM's transitional period from October 2023 to December 2025, only quarterly reporting is necessary. Starting in 2026, however, companies will need to collect detailed data, undergo EU-approved audits, and face penalties for any inaccuracies. By 2027, CBAM certificates will be mandatory for exports⁸. MSMEs often lack reliable emissions data systems, which may make compliance difficult. Additionally, expected cost increases of up to 25% for steel exported to the EU could harm competitiveness. This situation may limit market access and force MSMEs to either invest in cleaner technologies or reconsider their decision to export to the EU¹⁶. Consequently, CBAM poses considerable risks for MSMEs in India's secondary steel industry. Although the European Commission's phased approach provides some time for adjustment, the strict reporting and certification requirements starting in 2026 are likely to strain the limited technical and financial resources of smaller businesses. Combined with anticipated cost increases, these regulations threaten the sector's competitiveness and export potential. To address these challenges, targeted support is essential to help MSMEs remain resilient and transition to low-carbon operations without facing excessive burdens.

India-EU Free Trade Talks:

The negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the European Union (EU) began in the early 2000s and have recently gained more attention due to new global challenges in climate governance and carbon accountability. As the EU introduces climate-focused measures like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the trade talks between India and the EU are increasingly shaped by regulatory, environmental, and technological factors. For India, which relies heavily on energy in its industrial and export sectors, the ongoing FTA discussions offer both a chance to improve market access and a challenge in meeting strict environmental standards. This section explores the goals, key issues, and implications of the FTA within the context of global climate commitments, especially considering the rising influence of CBAM, as discussed in trade policy forums and industry reports.

Objectives of the talks:

The main goals of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement are to strengthen trade ties by improving global market access, lowering tariffs, and promoting investment in key industries. In addition to the usual trade objectives, sustainability issues have increasingly become part of the negotiation process. Both parties want to create rules that support clean energy collaboration, harmonize regulatory standards, and encourage technology exchange across borders. India's priorities include gaining better access to valuable EU markets and attracting investment in infrastructure and renewable energy. Meanwhile, the EU focuses on ensuring that trade commitments match its ambitious climate goals. The India-EU Trade Agreement also aims to boost cooperation in clean energy and climate initiatives. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, the 10th meeting of the India-EU Energy Panel resulted in adopting the work plan for the 3rd Phase of the Clean Energy and Climate Partnership. This phase concentrates on areas like green hydrogen, offshore wind, regional connectivity, energy efficiency, and energy and climate diplomacy¹⁷. The goals of the FTA match the issues discussed in this paper, showing that trade liberalisation and climate governance can work together. Rather than conflicting, a combined approach that focuses on fairness, innovation, and cooperation can transform regulatory challenges into chances for sustainable and lasting growth.

Key Issues Affecting Negotiations:

The India-EU FTA negotiations are influenced by a mix of regulatory and strategic factors. Differences in emission reporting systems, compliance strategies, and sustainability criteria have complicated the discussions. Non-tariff barriers, such as carbon reporting requirements, certification procedures, and environmental audits, create additional challenges, particularly for India's micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which may find it hard to meet these compliance demands. Furthermore, even with the renewed energy in the India-EU FTA talks that resumed in 2022 after almost ten years, major obstacles still exist. According to the Confederation of Indian Industry¹⁸, four key issues are crucial to these negotiations.

1. Market Access constraints: High tariff on sectors such as textiles, automobiles, and agriculture, coupled with withdrawal of preferential schemes like the EU’s GSP, limit Indian exports. Non-tariff barriers including complex certifications, strict sanitary regulations and high compliance costs disproportionately affect small and medium enterprises¹⁹.

2. Sustainability and Climate Regulations: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and related climate policies, though aimed at emission reductions, are viewed as potentially protectionist. Compliance burdens may significantly impact Indian exporters in emissions-intensive industries without adequate transition support²⁰.

3. Regulatory and Digital Barriers: Data protection rules such as GDPR and duplicative product certification requirements create high entry barriers, particularly for service providers and pharmaceuticals. The absence of mutual recognition agreements complicates cross-border trade and raises costs²¹.

4. Protracted Negotiations: Differences over tariff cuts, intellectual property rights, labour provisions, and environmental clauses have prolonged talks since 2007. Extended delays risk losing market opportunities and investor confidence²².

Recent Negotiation Developments:

The negotiations for the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) are moving forward. Both sides want to accelerate talks and resolve any outstanding issues. Recent reports show that government and industry representatives are involved in organized discussions. They are addressing important topics like access to agricultural markets and non-tariff barriers, including the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These discussions are part of a joint effort to improve regulatory alignment and make investments easier. The goal is to finalize an agreement by the end of 2025²³.

Most Relevant Implications for India’s Trade Strategy:

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the ongoing India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations are set to significantly impact India's trade policy and economic strategy. Examining specific risks, regulations, and negotiation dynamics shows that India needs to take a proactive and flexible approach. These factors are essential in shaping India's strategy to achieve positive outcomes while tackling environmental and compliance challenges.

a) Aligning Trade Objectives with Climate Commitments:

India’s export-driven industries, especially steel, aluminium, and cement, are particularly at risk from CBAM regulations. Research indicates that exporters in these sectors may face cost increases of 20-35%⁽¹⁵⁾. This rise could greatly reduce their competitiveness in EU markets unless India implements effective decarbonization strategies. Therefore, matching trade goals with climate commitments will require India to create practical plans for lowering emissions and invest in cleaner technologies to ensure long-term trade sustainability.

b) Negotiating for Flexibility, support, and Transitional Measures:

CBAM compliance poses serious challenges for small exporters and MSMEs because they have limited financial and technical resources. Without support during the transition, these businesses could see higher costs and reduced access to markets. India should push for gradual timelines, financial assistance, and training programs to ensure a fair transition for vulnerable sectors.

c) Framing Trade Negotiations as Collaborative Climate Solutions:

India can see climate-related trade regulations as opportunities for collaboration rather than hurdles. Promoting transparency, fairness, and mutual benefits will improve relations between India and the EU. Coordinating trade negotiations with domestic initiatives, such as implementing a carbon tax on high-emission goods, can encourage cleaner production. This approach will help industries gradually meet global climate standards while staying competitive.

d) Promoting Technology Transfers and Infrastructure Development:

The transition to low-carbon production systems requires access to new technologies and infrastructure development. Strengthening trade negotiations through partnerships focused on renewable energy solutions, carbon monitoring systems, and data management will be key to facilitating this shift. Encouraging international collaborations can help industries modernize while ensuring that environmental targets are achieved efficiently and affordably.

SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS AND SUGGESTION FOR POLICY MAKERS:

In this section, the analysis highlights the need for a clear and coordinated trade strategy to tackle the challenges posed by the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). India must align its climate commitments with its export goals to remain competitive while meeting international standards.

i. Speed Up the Reduction of Industrial Carbon Emissions:

Set clear emission reduction goals for each sector. Implement carbon-efficiency standards for industries that focus on exports. Provide support through tax breaks and subsidized financing to upgrade to clean technologies.

ii. Offer Transitional Assistance to Support MSME Exporters:

Arrange longer compliance deadlines and simpler certification processes for smaller exporters. Also, set up a National CBAM Adjustment Fund to provide financial support.

iii. Align National Policies with International Climate Trade Standards:

Introduce domestic carbon pricing or tax mechanisms. Mandate carbon disclosure standards. Develop green industrial clusters to make climate compliance part of the business and improve export readiness.

iv. Ensure the Transfer of Technology and Establish Joint Production Deals:

Integrate technology collaboration as an important part of India-EU discussions. This will help in accessing renewable energy systems, carbon tracking tools, and low-carbon production technologies through partnerships and green industrial zones.

CONCLUSION:

The relationship between the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) presents both challenges and opportunities for India. The FTA can improve market access and promote technology exchange. However, CBAM introduces significant cost and compliance issues, especially for carbon-heavy industries and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). To address these challenges, India should adopt supportive strategies, such as a gradual compliance framework, infrastructure development, and targeted assistance. For example, implementing a domestic carbon tax on high-emission goods can encourage industries to adopt cleaner practices. This approach would help reduce their exposure to CBAM regulations. A balanced, proactive strategy that includes phased compliance, specific support, infrastructure investment, and international cooperation can protect India's industries while promoting sustainable development. By integrating trade and environmental policies, India can better meet global climate expectations and turn regulatory challenges into opportunities for sustainable growth and long-term competitiveness.

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Received on 23.11.2025 Revised on 05.01.2026

Accepted on 21.02.2026 Published on 20.07.2026

Available online from July 30, 2026

Asian Journal of Management. 2026;17(3):203-209.

DOI: 10.52711/2321-5763.2026.00032

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Creative Commons License.